06MOSCOW10486, REFERENDUM RESULTS: PRICEY WRINKLE TO THE FIVE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MOSCOW10486 2006-09-19 15:39 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO7684
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #0486 2621539
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 191539Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2577
INFO RUCNOSC/OSCE POST COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 010486 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2016 
TAGS: PREL OSCE PBTS MD RS
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM RESULTS: PRICEY WRINKLE TO THE FIVE 
PLUS TWO 
 
REF: A. CHISNAU 1047 
     B. MOSCOW 7769 
     C. MOSCOW 10439 
 
Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells. 
  Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) Foreign Minister Lavrov's short statement 
encapsulates GOR reaction to the referendum: the results were 
no surprise and the partners should return to the talks.  MFA 
Transnistrian negotiator Valeriy Nesterushkin contended that 
the Transnistrians will most likely demand removal of the 
post-March 6 customs regime before joining the Five Plus Two. 
According to Nesterushkin, a stream of Transnistrian 
officials will visit Moscow in the near future to discuss 
next steps. 
 
Resumption of the Five Plus Two not that simple 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2.  (C) While Nesterushkin supported an eventual resumption 
of talks, he rejected suggestions that the Five Plus Two 
resume meeting in Chisnau as early as October 18.  The 
situation is much more complicated now that Transnistrians 
are "fortified" by the referendum.  Transnistrians will most 
likely demand removal of the export regime before they join 
the talks.   Nesterushkin preferred the EU's proposal--two 
separate Five Plus One meetings, where Moldova and 
Transnistria meet separately with the outside partners, 
instead of a hasty resumption of the Five Plus Two. 
Nesterushkin warned that the Five Plus Two is not meant to be 
a show and a failure -- Transnistria's "no show" -- will 
jeopardize the existing frame of negotiation.  Regarding the 
export regime, Nesterushkin emphasized the 1997 Moscow 
document, which granted a special status to Transnistria with 
its own external market.  He blamed his "partners" in 
negotiation for having "dismantled" these previously agreed 
principles. 
 
Bandit or not, this is Reality 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) Nesterushkin expected to consult with Transnistrian 
officials, including "Foreign Minister" Valeriy Litskai, who 
plan to visit Moscow soon. Whether some people call Smirnov a 
bandit, Transnistria a black hole of Europe was irrelevant. 
Transnistria has expressed itself.  We are simply going to 
have to deal with it.  He added, "After all, the U.S. dealt 
with Noriega although it was clear to everyone else that he 
was a bandit." 
 
What Next? 
---------- 
 
4.  (C) Once again, Nesterushkin did not provide any clarity 
on how Russia will proceed vis-a-vis Transnistria in the long 
run.  He said that all parties should come to the table with 
no emotion or wishful thinking.  If the OSCE proposal works, 
he would be happy but he cannot be so optimistic. 
Nesterushkin did not directly comment on Transnistrian plans 
for integration with Russia, but jokingly asked whether the 
U.S. would want the Marshall Islands to become part of the 
U.S. 
 
5.  (C) Comment: Nesterushkin's comments do not fully track 
with Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov's point 
to the Ambassador that the partners need to sit down and talk 
(Ref C). 
 
BURNS

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