06MOSCOW12139, GOR DOWNPLAYS PROSPECT OF VIOLENCE IN BISHKEK

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MOSCOW12139 2006-10-31 14:22 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO5232
OO RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #2139 3041422
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 311422Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4704
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 012139 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KG RS
SUBJECT: GOR DOWNPLAYS PROSPECT OF VIOLENCE IN BISHKEK 
 
REF: BISHKEK 1532 
 
Classified By: POL M/C Alice G. Wells.  Reasons:  1.4(B/D). 
 
1.  (C) In an October 31 meeting, Maksim Peshkov, Director, 
First CIS Department (Central Asia), attributed Kyrgyzstan's 
current turmoil to the failure of the Bakiyev-Kulov "tandem" 
to achieve political and economic stability.  He said that 
Bakiyev, representing the South, and Kulov, the North, could 
have succeeded in establishing a more unified political force 
in Kyrgyzstan and avoided the persistent opposition movement. 
Peshkov underlined Russia's view that the change from Akayev 
to Bakiyev last March did not qualify as a democratic 
revolution, nor did it bring any improvement in the country's 
economic situation.  Now, the Kyrgyz are simply fed up.  He 
said the planned November 2 opposition demonstration was not 
just a result of the delay in constitutional reform but 
reflected overall dissatisfaction with the Bakiyev 
government. 
 
2.  (C)  Peshkov admitted that Russia, unlike the U.S., does 
not frequently engage with the opposition.  He warned that 
the November 2 demonstration would attract "criminal" and 
"mercenary" demonstrators, who are happy to see destructive 
action in their capital.  He noted that fatigue with street 
politics might lessen turnout.  Peshkov concluded that absent 
a provocation, the street protests would not turn violent. 
Acknowledging dissatisfaction within security structures for 
the Bakiyev government, Peshkov was quick to underscore that 
this did not constitute support for the opposition.  He 
agreed with the U.S. message that demonstrations should be 
peaceful and in accordance with the constitution and also 
agreed that reform was necessary for Kyrgyzstan. Corruption, 
ingrained clan politics, and the lack of resources hamper the 
country's step forward.  Where Russia differed with the U.S., 
he reiterated, was on the timeline for reform given the 
social and cultural realities in each of the Central Asian 
republics. 
 
3.  (C)  Comment:  Peshkov did not rule out the prospect that 
the November 2 demonstration could turn violent, but did not 
provide us with any strong feel for how Russia would react. 
Lacking the means to change the situation significantly, 
Moscow has usually been willing to let events take their 
course while seeking protection for Russian interests. 
BURNS

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