06MOSCOW12190, 11/1 DEADLINE HITS: AEROFLOT LOOSES 787 SLOTS, BUT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MOSCOW12190 2006-11-01 15:58 2011-08-30 01:44 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO6491
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHMO #2190 3051558
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 011558Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4778
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS MOSCOW 012190 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EB AND EUR/RUS 
STATE PLS PASS USTR FOR DONNELLY, ERRION, DWOSKIN 
USDOC FOR 4321/ITA/MAC/EUR/RISA EDWARDS AND RUDD 
USDOC FOR 3004/CS/ADVOCACY/BLOOM 
NSC FOR GRAHAM AND MCKIBBEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PREL EAIR USTR RS
SUBJECT: 11/1 DEADLINE HITS: AEROFLOT LOOSES 787 SLOTS, BUT 
NOT THE DEAL 
 
1. (SBU) As of today, November 1, Boeing has pushed back the 
potential delivery schedule for Aeroflot's proposed purchase 
of 22 787 Dreamliners from 2009-2011 to 2011-2013.  By today, 
Aeroflot was to have either secured Board approval for the 
acquisition or have signed an intermediate lease for six of 
the 22 planes (a move that would not have required Board 
approval).  Boeing has left a modified delivery schedule on 
the table until December 1: roughly 12 planes in 2011 and the 
remainder in 2012-2013 timeframe.  After that, it appears 
that Aeroflot would have to renegotiate their deal.  (Note: 
current demand for 787s suggests that Aeroflot might have to 
wait until 2014.) 
 
2. (SBU) November 1 is also the expiration date of the 
extension option Alexander Lebedev's National Reserve 
Corporation purchased on September 15.  While we have heard 
suggestions as recently as Monday that Lebedev is looking to 
intervene again to hold on to the earlier delivery slots, we 
sense that Boeing may no longer be open to this option. 
3. (SBU) Comment.  The terms of this deal are clearly 
shifting in front of Aeroflot's eyes, but the deal itself is 
still there for the taking.  Understanding that Aeroflot has 
essentially no place to turn but Boeing to meet its wide-body 
long-haul needs in the medium term, this game is far from 
over.  In many ways, the stars seem to be realigning 
favorably -- the Federal Property Agency has given the deal 
its blessing; Airbus continues to stumble badly; and the 
demand for newer, safer, aircraft is not going away any time 
soon.  It may be that the longest campaign in the history of 
Boeing will soon come to close.  End Comment. 
BURNS

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