06MOSCOW12371, MOSCOW’S REACTION TO BISHKEK VIOLENCE: “ANOTHER

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MOSCOW12371 2006-11-08 16:32 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO3553
OO RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #2371 3121632
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 081632Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5055
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 012371 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KG RS
SUBJECT: MOSCOW'S REACTION TO BISHKEK VIOLENCE: "ANOTHER 
FAILED COLOR REVOLUTION"? 
 
REF: MOSCOW 12139 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns.  Reasons: 1.4(B/D) 
 
1. (C) The GOR has reacted cautiously to events in Bishkek. 
After the news of the November 7 violence reached Moscow, DFM 
Denisov told the Ambassador that the GOR was keeping a close 
watch on the situation and urging calm.  Director of the 
MFA's First CIS Department (Central Asia) Maksim Peshkov told 
us that the GOR was cautioning both the opposition and the 
government to exercise restraint.  Expressing disappointment 
at reports of violence in Bishkek, Peshkov reiterated that 
both sides needed to seek a compromise. 
 
2.  (C) Peshkov noted that the GOR was in direct contact with 
senior Kyrgyz officials, but judged that opposition demands 
for the resignation of all senior government officials were 
unrealistic.  The GOR welcomed the draft constitution put 
forward by Bakiyev on November 6, with Peshkov noting that it 
was "hard to dispute" Bakiyev's contention that it was 
impossible to ratify a constitution in a matter of a few 
hours.  The draft, Peshkov maintained, should be discussed in 
Parliament.  The November 7 MFA press release also appealed 
to both parties to put political emotion and ambitions aside 
and return to reason. 
 
3.  (C) While coverage of the Bishkek demonstrations has been 
muted, a few analysts reacted quickly to the deteriorating 
situation.  Gleb Pavlovskiy of the Effective Policy 
Foundation suggested that "What we are witnessing is the 
collapse of another color revolution. Color revolutions have 
proved to be effective machines for the destruction of the 
societies where they have occurred."  He hinted that Russia 
may have to intervene in Kyrgyzstan to prevent further 
"catastrophic" developments.  Andrey Grozin of the CIS 
Institute, took a much more cautious approach, telling us 
that the volatile and unpredictable situation in Bishkek did 
not invite any serious prognosis.  Grozin assessed that the 
two parties should be capable of reaching an agreement 
without resorting to violence. 
 
4.  (C) At the November 8 news of a calmer Bishkek, Peshkov 
said that the GOR was relieved.  He added that a nation's 
constitution should not be written in the middle of 
demonstrations and ultimatums but should reflect the 
interests of the majority of its citizens. 
 
5.  (C)  Comment:  The GOR remains skeptical of the Tulip 
Revolution which, many Russian observers believe, has not 
benefited Kyrgyzstan.  The preference here seems to be for a 
middle-of-the-road course: a prolongation of the current 
government and a compromise with opposition demands. 
BURNS

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