07MOSCOW1479, OTHER RUSSIA’S MOSCOW MARCH PLANS SIDELINED;

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MOSCOW1479 2007-04-03 16:29 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO3269
OO RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #1479/01 0931629
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 031629Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8900
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001479 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDRM RS
SUBJECT: OTHER RUSSIA'S MOSCOW MARCH PLANS SIDELINED; 
KASYANOV NOT FLUSTERED BY PRO-KREMLIN YOUTH GROUP 
HARASSMENT; MIRONOV'S STUMPING FOR PUTIN DISMISSED 
 
REF: ST. PETERSBURG 50 
 
Classified By: D/POL M/C Colin Cleary.  Reason: 1.4 (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) Former Prime Minister and "Other Russia (OR)" 
participant Mikhail Kasyanov's Press Secretary, Yelena Dikun, 
described April 3 the Moscow city government's decision to 
sideline a planned April 14 "March of Dissenters" as the 
by-product of the authorities' uneasiness in the wake of 
problems with its March 3 predecessor in St. Petersburg. 
Dikun described Kasyanov as determined to continue his 
campaign for the presidency, in spite of resistance in the 
regions and harassment by pro-Kremlin youth groups.  She 
joined other Embassy contacts in dismissing continued efforts 
by Federation Council Chairman Sergey Mironov to create a 
groundswell for a third Putin term as "pathetic," as did 
Public Chamber member Sergey Ryakhovskiy, who had discussed 
the issue briefly with Presidential Administration Deputy 
Vladislav Surkov April 2.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
OR:  No Final Decision on March 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Yelena Dikun, the press secretary for OR participant 
and former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov April 3 traced the 
apparent April 2 decision by Moscow city authorities not to 
approve the next in a series of "March of the Dissenters," to 
fears it could get out of control, as had the March 3 rally 
in St. Petersburg (reftel).  Dikun found the pretext for 
refusing OR's march notification --that the pro-Kremlin youth 
group "Young Guard" got there first-- "absurd."  The 
alternate two meeting sites offered by the city would likely 
not be accepted by OR organizers, although Dikun noted that a 
decision would have to await formal rejection by the city of 
it notification of intention to march.  To date, there had 
only been a telephone call.  Also factored into the decision 
would be a Moscow municipal court's decision, expected April 
4, on OR's appeal of the city's refusal to allow it to march 
in December.  A court decision backing OR could force the 
city to backpedal on the April 14 notification. 
 
3. (C) Public Chamber member Bishop Sergey Ryakhovskiy told 
us April 3 that Presidential Administration Deputy Vladislav 
Surkov, whom he saw April 2 on the margins of a meeting with 
Protestant representatives, dismissed OR as marginal, but 
noted that others did not share his view. Ryakhovskiy thought 
some in the GOR remained worried about a Russian Orange 
Revolution, concerns perhaps magnified by recent developments 
in Kiev. 
 
4. (C) Dikun was unimpressed with United Civic Front and OR 
participant Garry Kasparov, whom she termed a "loner," who 
lacks political instincts.  His reliance on the Western media 
discredited him in Russia, she feared, and she reported that 
his tendency to talk about Russia as if it were a foreign 
country was noticed here.  She contrasted Kasparov 
unfavorably with National Bolshevik Party leader Eduard 
Limonov, whom she found charismatic.  She expected, however 
that the National Bolsheviks might soon be banned as 
extremist, effectively eliminating Limonov's bully pulpit. 
 
------------------- 
Kasyanov Determined 
------------------- 
 
5. (C) Dikun had accompanied Kasyanov on his most recent 
"campaign" trip April 2 to Dubna, not far from Moscow.  She 
described attempts by a few members of the pro-Kremlin youth 
group "Nashi" to disrupt Kasyanov's planned meeting there as 
"not serious," and she noted with satisfaction that the host 
Institute of Nuclear Research had kept its promise to provide 
a forum for the meeting. Dikun noted that earlier attempts by 
Kasyanov to have similar meetings in Perm and Kursk had been 
complicated by last-minute decisions by his hosts to withdraw 
their offers of a venue.  She attributed their decisions not 
to "telephone law," but to a general nervousness in the 
regions.  Harassment of Kasyanov by pro-Kremlin youth groups 
was generally not threatening, Dikun said, but it was 
wearing.  The one exception was Kasyanov's meetings in Kursk, 
which were disrupted by a "large group of very drunk" young 
people.  Kasyanov had been more successful with the "virtual" 
meetings he had staged with audiences in Orenburg, Ufa, 
Yekaterinburg, Tambov, and Chelyabinsk, she said. 
 
6. (C) Dikun expected Kasyanov to continue his quixotic run 
 
MOSCOW 00001479  002 OF 002 
 
 
for the presidency.  She worried that a recent re-possession 
of his dacha and a summons to appear in court in connection 
with the investigation of former Deputy Finance Minister 
Vavilov could be a warning of legal action to come, but she 
believed Kasyanov would not be deterred. (Kasyanov was First 
Deputy Finance Minister at the time that Vavilov was 
reportedly engaged in abuse of his position and, allegedly, 
the theft of large amounts of GOR funds.) 
 
------------------------------- 
Mironov A "Well-Trained Parrot" 
--------------------
----------- 
 
7. (C) Both Ryakhovskiy and Dikun dismissed as "pathetic" 
Federation Council Chairman Sergey Mironov's continued 
attempts to promote a third term for President Putin. 
(Mironov April 2 continued his quest to promote discussion of 
term three in the regions with a posting on the Federation 
Council website and, reportedly, letters to each of the 
regions' legislatures.)  "It's a game," said Ryakhovskiy, who 
went on to describe Mironov as a "well-trained parrot."  When 
he had mentioned Mironov's antics to Surkov on April 2, the 
Presidential Administration Deputy had dismissed the subject 
with a "wave of the hand."  Dukin remained certain that Putin 
would step down, although she thought he would attempt to 
remain influential.  Like other observers here, she was 
uncertain what form that would take. 
BURNS

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