Daily Archives: February 9, 2008

08MOSCOW355, GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A “WARNING

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MOSCOW355 2008-02-09 05:21 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO3876
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #0355 0400521
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 090521Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6503
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000355 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT 
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR) 
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF 
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018 
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A "WARNING 
SHOT" 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Gazprom's international affairs director Ivan Zolotov 
told us February 8th that press accounts of Gazprom's threat 
to cutoff gas to Ukraine on February 11th were correct. 
However, he added that his "personal opinion" was that this 
was just a "warning shot" to Ukraine in the run up to 
upcoming visits of Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko and, 
later, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.  He said "Tymoshenko 
started it" when she publicly demanded higher transit fees 
and the elimination of intermediaries in the transport chain 
of gas from Turkmenistan to Ukraine.  "When the other side 
makes a move, we react in kind."  Zolotov said Ukraine knew 
the announcement was coming and that negotiations have been 
on-going. 
 
2. (C) Zolotov repeatedly expressed his belief that gas flows 
would continue uninterrupted while negotiations continue, 
saying "we've resolved it before and we'll resolve it again." 
 He added, however, that if "worse comes to worst," Gazprom 
estimates that 10-15% of supplies to Europe could be 
affected.  He said that this level of reduction would be 
easily offset by withdrawals from storage in Europe, 
including from facilities in Ukraine.  Zolotov justified 
Gazprom's threat, saying "we have to ring the alarm bells, 
because they owe us a lot of money."  He said that of the 
reported $1.5 billion debt that is the cause of this latest 
dispute, $500 million is for gas supplied this year while the 
rest is still outstanding from last year. 
 
3. (C) Oleg Gutsulyak, First Secretary at the Ukrainian 
Embassy in Moscow, questioned the $1.5 billion figure touted 
by Gazprom, but added that the embassy is not involved 
directly in the negotiations.  He seemed confident, however, 
that there would be no supply disruptions.  Former Deputy 
Energy Minister Vladimir Milov, now a consultant and 
outspoken Kremlin critic, was less sure that Gazprom would 
restrain itself.  He told us February 8th that the Kremlin 
sees Tymoshenko as the enemy and politically vulnerable at 
home.  "They want to bury her, and this is their chance." 
BURNS

Wikileaks

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08MOSCOW354, GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A “WARNING

WikiLeaks Link

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol).Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08MOSCOW354.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MOSCOW354 2008-02-09 05:21 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO3875
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #0354 0400521
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 090521Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6502
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000354 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT 
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR) 
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF 
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018 
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A "WARNING 
SHOT" 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Gazprom's international affairs director Ivan Zolotov 
told us February 8th that press accounts of Gazprom's threat 
to cutoff gas to Ukraine on February 11th were correct. 
However, he added that his "personal opinion" was that this 
was just a "warning shot" to Ukraine in the run up to 
upcoming visits of Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko and, 
later, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.  He said "Tymoshenko 
started it" when she publicly demanded higher transit fees 
and the elimination of intermediaries in the transport chain 
of gas from Turkmenistan to Ukraine.  "When the other side 
makes a move, we react in kind."  Zolotov said Ukraine knew 
the announcement was coming and that negotiations have been 
on-going. 
 
2. (C) Zolotov repeatedly expressed his belief that gas flows 
would continue uninterrupted while negotiations continue, 
saying "we've resolved it before and we'll resolve it again." 
 He added, however, that if "worse comes to worst," Gazprom 
estimates that 10-15% of supplies to Europe could be 
affected.  He said that this level of reduction would be 
easily offset by withdrawals from storage in Europe, 
including from facilities in Ukraine.  Zolotov justified 
Gazprom's threat, saying "we have to ring the alarm bells, 
because they owe us a lot of money."  He said that of the 
reported $1.5 billion debt that is the cause of this latest 
dispute, $500 million is for gas supplied this year while the 
rest is still outstanding from last year. 
 
3. (C) Oleg Gutsulyak, First Secretary at the Ukrainian 
Embassy in Moscow, questioned the $1.5 billion figure touted 
by Gazprom, but added that the embassy is not involved 
directly in the negotiations.  He seemed confident, however, 
that there would be no supply disruptions.  Former Deputy 
Energy Minister Vladimir Milov, now a consultant and 
outspoken Kremlin critic, was less sure that Gazprom would 
restrain itself.  He told us February 8th that the Kremlin 
sees Tymoshenko as the enemy and politically vulnerable at 
home.  "They want to bury her, and this is their chance." 
BURNS

Wikileaks