09MOSCOW2755, RUSSIAN MFA ON MOLDOVA ELECTIONS, TRANSNISTRIA,

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09MOSCOW2755 2009-11-09 15:52 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Moscow

VZCZCXRO4177
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #2755/01 3131552
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091552Z NOV 09 ZDK CTG OVER A DOZEN SVC REQUESTS
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5346
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002755 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN RS MD
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN MFA ON MOLDOVA ELECTIONS, TRANSNISTRIA, 
CREDIT 
 
Classified By: Pol M/C Susan Elliott for reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  The MFA said that in late October, Moscow 
had urged Moldovan Communist Party leader Voronin and 
presidential hopeful Lupu to compromise in the November 10 
Moldovan presidential election, without proposing specific 
details for any agreement.  Still, Russian officials believed 
the elections would likely fail, causing a repeat 
parliamentary election and the risk of further polarization. 
On Transnistria, the MFA said the November 6 talks in Vienna 
had produced positive outcomes: Moldovan PM Filat emerged as 
Transnistrian leader Smirnov's negotiating partner, 
Transnistria agreed to discuss social and economic issues, 
and new documents were being prepared for agreement.  Russia 
would not withdraw its troops from Transnistria, though. 
Disbursement of a Russian loan to Chisinau was delayed by the 
need to set up a bilateral commission that would work out 
specific projects to fund.  End Summary 
 
--------------------- 
Presidential election 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) MFA Deputy Director of the Moldova Desk Nikolai Fomin 
confirmed on November 8 that Russia hosted Moldovan Communist 
Party leader Vladimir Voronin and Moldovan presidential 
hopeful Marian Lupu in Moscow on October 30 and 31, 
respectively.  The MFA did not participate in the meetings, 
which were conducted by the Russian Chief of the Presidential 
Administration Sergei Naryshkin.  Fomin said Naryshkin had in 
separate meetings urged both politicians to find a compromise 
in the November 10 presidential election that guaranteed 
stability and continuity.  Fomin added that Naryshkin 
refrained from proposing specific details for any agreement, 
as that would have constituted interference in domestic 
politics. 
 
3.  (C) Fomin criticized the EU's handling of the political 
crisis in Moldova, saying that EU Special Representative for 
Moldova Kalman Mizsei involved himself in Moldova's internal 
affairs in a way Russia had consciously chosen not to.  He 
did not think that Russia would object to any U.S. high-level 
visits or financial assistance to Moldova in the form of MCC 
projects, as that constituted normal inter-governmental 
cooperation. 
 
4.  (C) Fomin said that Naryshkin's approach conformed to the 
message Russia gave Moldova when President Medvedev had met 
with Lupu during the October 9 CIS Summit.  Fomin argued that 
Medvedev had not snubbed Voronin by not meeting with him on 
that occasion, as Voronin was an opposition politician, 
whereas Lupu was the presidential aspirant.  Naryshkin's Oct 
30 meeting with Voronin put all doubts to rest that Russia 
disfavored Voronin, Fomin opined. 
 
5.  (C) While Lupu and Voronin had clearly understood 
Moscow's interest in maintaining stability and continuity, 
Fomin doubted that they would actually compromise during the 
November 10 presidential election.  Therefore, the election 
would most likely fail, causing a repeat parliamentary 
election in 2010 and the risk of radicalization of the 
situation in Moldova.  The communist party would demonstrate 
unity in opposing Lupu, Fomin said, while Lupu would be 
unwilling to compromise, and PM Filat would make his own bid 
for the presidency.  Still, it was unrealistic to assume 
Filat's ambitions might cause his Liberal Democratic Party to 
form an alliance with the Communist Party. 
 
------------ 
Transnistria 
------------ 
 
6.  (C) Fomin said that the November 6 talks in Vienna had 
shown several positive signs.  By underscoring the Prime 
Minister's constitutional responsibility as chief Moldovan 
negotiator on Transnistria, Filat emerged as Transnistrian 
leader Smirnov's negotiating partner, while DPM Osipov and 
Transnistrian "Foreign Minister" Yastrebchak were the 
counterparts for technical issues.  Fomin also welcomed 
Transnistria's willingness to negotiate over social and 
economic issues.  He noted Smirnov's insistence that the 
political process would not be renewed in the "5 plus 2"-like 
process, which should remain consultative.  Fomin finally 
listed the decision to prepare new documents for agreement as 
a positive outcome of the talks. 
 
MOSCOW 00002755  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
7.  (C) Fomin noted without rancor the decision to conduct 
all further talks in the "5 plus 2" format (which he did not 
describe as such), and to discontinue further "2 plus 1" 
meetings between the Moldovan, Transnistrian, and Russian 
leaders.  Moldovan FM Iurie Leanca and FM Sergei Lavrov in a 
meeting on November 6 had also expressed satisfaction with 
the resumption of the "5 plus 2" talks. 
 
8.  (C) Fomin argued against withdrawing Russ
ian troops from 
Transnistria.  He said their number was so small as to make 
Russia's presence there symbolic only, although he also 
claimed that withdrawing them would be destabilizing.  Fomin 
said that the presidentially-agreed mandate governing the 
troops' presence would be hard to break, while it would be 
equally difficult to create a new mandate to cover a new 
international troop presence.  Fomin said that the British 
troops in Cyprus showed that it was possible for a country to 
simultaneously maintain a troop presence and be accepted as a 
mediator in the conflict. 
 
------ 
Credit 
------ 
 
9.  (C) Fomin said that Moscow and Chisinau agreed during the 
CIS Summit to set up a bilateral commission to work out 
concrete proposals how to use the USD 150 million loan 
Moldova had requested from Russia.  He said the delay in 
transferring the credit was not linked to the political 
insecurity in Moldova, but rather was a result of 
bureaucratic processes in setting up the commission.  For 
example, the new Moldovan government had not yet appointed 
its delegation head for the commission.  The recent IMF 
decision to disburse USD 590 million to Moldova would 
strengthen Moldova's economic stability, making it possible 
for Russia to take its time in allocating its own credit. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) After seven months of uncertainty in Moldova's 
government formation, Moscow has no more sense than others of 
what will happen next.  Therefore, it is trying to keep its 
lines open to all major political players, in order to be 
well-positioned with whomever should emerge the victor. 
Beyrle

Wikileaks

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